UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2vsRun Your Own Matchup
UFCmmaMain EventLightweight
Max Holloway
25-7
Charles Oliveira
34-10 (1 NC)
Sat, Mar 7, 2026
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Stored Prediction · 7 data pts
Holloway 35%65% Oliveira
Charles Oliveira— Clear Lean
Method Prediction
32%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
32%
Decision
Key Factors
5" reach advantage is significant — controls distance and landing zone
Fighter A has a significant striking advantage (+11 pts)
Fighter B controls the grappling exchanges (+17 pts)
60-Second Dossier
The engine leans Charles Oliveira at 65.2% probability, with Submission as the predicted method. The biggest skill gap is in Submissions, where Charles Oliveira holds the advantage. Max Holloway has a viable path through submission threat but must overcome a 65.2% probability gap to pull the upset.
Stored prediction based on publicly available data. Not betting advice. For analysis and entertainment. What you do with this information is your edge.